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Presentations, Abstracts, or Demonstrations (740)

Published on in Vol 8, No 1 (2016):

Early Estimation of the Basic Reproduction Number Using Minimal Outbreak Data

Early Estimation of the Basic Reproduction Number Using Minimal Outbreak Data

Early Estimation of the Basic Reproduction Number Using Minimal Outbreak Data

Authors of this article:

Carl Grafe
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    The basic reproduction number is a fundamental measure used to characterize infectious disease outbreaks. A modification to a previous approach is proposed that allows estimates to be obtained earlier in an outbreak using only the current case count, number currently ill, and the size of the at-risk population. This approach was tested using a mathematical model and appears to yield valid estimates of the basic reproduction number within a reasonable margin of error.